 "Martin Wolf, chief economics commentator, the Financial Times, London")
Martin Wolf, chief economics commentator, the Financial Times, London
India is expected to become a superpower but not a high-income economy by 2047, said Martin Wolf, chief economics commentator of Financial Times on Friday. According to the economist, the global economic slowdown and a shock-prone, fragile world are making it difficult for India to rise to a high-income economy.
“I don’t think it is plausible, but it is feasible. To do it, India will have to do something pretty close to what China did in the 20 years leading up to 2012. Even if it doesn’t, and merely continues on its present track, India is likely to become, by most definitions, a superpower by the middle of the century,” Wolf said in a talk titled “What would it take for India to become a developed country by 2047.”
The central government made the development of India into an advanced economy by 2047 a recurring theme in the run-up to the recently concluded Lok Sabha elections, and central think-tank NITI Aayog has been working on a vision document identifying sectoral gaps and areas for improvement in the coming two decades.
According to Wolf, to become a high-income economy, India’s GDP per head would have to reach 7.5 per cent a year, up from 4.8 per cent, which is unlikely due to global economic slowdown, a move towards de-globalisation, and a decay of liberal democracy across the globe.
However, India has an opportunity to take advantage of its political position and become an obvious “plus one” in a world of “China plus one” by having good relations with the West, and an enormously successful Indian diaspora.
He further added that India’s size gives it the resources to diversify and upgrade the economy over time and can become a magnet for Foreign Direct Investment (FDI).
“There has been consistent overoptimism about the long-term impact of new technologies on the underlying productivity growth,” he said, adding that there are “hugely exaggerated” hopes about what artificial intelligence can do for productivity.
First Published: Jul 05 2024 | 10:32 PM IS