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UNCTAD said global trade growth in the March quarter of 2024 was primarily driven by increased exports from China (9 per cent), India (7 per cent), and the US (3 per cent). Representative Picture
India’s merchandise exports in June rose 2.6 per cent to $35.2 billion and merchandise imports expanded by 4.9 per cent to $56.18 billion, leading to a trade deficit of $20.98 billion, data released by the commerce department showed.
The jump in exports was driven by higher demand for engineering goods, electronics, coffee, drugs and pharmaceuticals, organic and inorganic chemicals.
“In April-June, exports were $200 billion (goods and services). If the trend continues, we are confident that we will cross $800 billion trade this year,” commerce secretary Sunil Barthwal told reporters in a briefing.
Last month, commerce and industry minister Piyush Goyal had said that exports of goods and services from India are expected to cross $800 billion by the end of the current financial year despite external headwinds.
India’s overall exports—goods and services—saw only 0.04 per cent growth at $776.68 billion in FY24.
The World Trade Organization (WTO) in April revised downwards its projection for merchandise trade volume growth to 2.6 per cent for 2024 from 3.3 per cent estimated in October last year. However, the multilateral trade body, in its latest bi-annual ‘Global Trade Outlook and Statistics’, said after a contraction of 1.2 per cent in 2023, demand for traded goods will rebound in 2024 as inflationary pressures ease and real household incomes improve.
In October last year, it had projected merchandise trade volume to grow 0.8 per cent in 2023.
The United Nations Trade and Development (UNCTAD) in its latest Global Trade Update released earlier this month said the outlook for 2024 remains positive, but geopolitical issues and industrial policies will continue reshaping global trade patterns. “Moderating global inflation and improving economic growth forecasts suggest a reversal of the downward macroeconomic trends that have characterised most of 2023. Additionally, rising demand for products related to energy transition and artificial intelligence should contribute to trade growth through 2024. Furthermore, the possibility of interest rate cuts in the United States later in the year and the consequently weaker United States dollar could give global trade a further boost. However, the global trade outlook for 2024 remains subject to downside risks. Persistent geopolitical tensions, rising shipping costs, and emerging industrial policies could significantly impact global trade,” it added.
UNCTAD said global trade growth in the March quarter of 2024 was primarily driven by increased exports from China (9 per cent), India (7 per cent), and the US (3 per cent).
According to WTO, India’s rank among leading merchandise exporters (excluding intra-European Union trade) improved by a notch to 13 in 2023 from the preceding year, though its share remained unchanged at 2.2 per cent. Similarly, its rank among major merchandise importers (excluding intra-European Union trade) rose a notch to 6, while its share remained the same at 3.4 per cent.
First Published: Jul 15 2024 | 3:16 PM IS